In the Asian continent, various countries are experiencing plummeting fertility rates that jeopardize future economic growth. According to data from the World Bank, China recorded a global fertility rate of 1.0, remaining well below the replacement threshold. Meanwhile, the Ministry of the Interior of Taiwan reported a rate of 0.86 this year, while the United Nations places South Korea at the global minimum of 0.75 children per woman.
In this regional context, for the first time in its history, India has officially fallen below the population replacement level. The global fertility rate of the Asian giant has dropped to just 1.9 children per woman, falling below the 2.1 births needed to ensure long-term generational replacement. Although the population will continue to grow temporarily due to demographic inertia, this collapse in birth rates anticipates accelerated population aging, a lower availability of workers in the labor force, and an unsustainable fiscal pressure on pension systems and health services.
According to the report from the Sample Registration System (SRS), the most extensive demographic survey of the nation published by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India, in the 2000s the national TFR averaged 3.3 births per woman. Journalist Priyanka Shankar reported for Al Jazeera on June 9, 2026 that India surpassed China in 2023 as the most populous nation with 1.5 billion inhabitants, following the first alerts recorded in 2022 by the National Family Health Survey.
The phenomenon is attributed to greater access to education, contraceptives, and rising child-rearing costs. Economist Dipa Sinha told Al Jazeera: “The global fertility rate tends to fall when more women in society have access to education, contraceptives, and greater autonomy in decision-making within households”. The specialist added: “It also falls when the economy becomes expensive, making raising children costly as well”. Additionally, infant mortality decreased from 30 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2019 to 24 per 1,000 in 2024.
From a market perspective, India entered the demographic dividend phase in 2005, a period where the working-age population (15 to 64 years) exceeds dependent sectors, a window that UNFPA predicts will last until 2055. While Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong took advantage of this phase in the 1960s, and China in the 1980s by implementing market reforms, India risks losing this benefit due to persistent unemployment. Dipa Sinha warned: “If fewer children are born, in about 30 to 40 years India will have more elderly people who will not be able to participate as much in the labor force, which will pose a challenge for the country's workforce”.
