At the state level, northern provinces with lower income and education levels record the highest rates: Bihar leads with 2.9 children per woman, followed by Uttar Pradesh with 2.6. In contrast, New Delhi reported a low of 1.2, while southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala recorded 1.3. Dipa Sinha explained: “Many studies on regional development in India since the early 80s have revealed that southern states have developed faster in terms of both the economy and the status of women in society. Therefore, these reasons have contributed to the lower fertility rate”.
In the Asian continent, various countries are experiencing plummeting fertility rates that jeopardize future economic growth. According to data from the World Bank, China recorded a global fertility rate of 1.0, remaining well below the replacement threshold. Meanwhile, the Ministry of the Interior of Taiwan reported a rate of 0.86 this year, while the United Nations places South Korea at the global minimum of 0.75 children per woman.
In this regional context, for the first time in its history, India has officially fallen below the population replacement level. The global fertility rate of the Asian giant has dropped to just 1.9 children per woman, falling below the 2.1 births needed to ensure long-term generational replacement. Although the population will continue to grow temporarily due to demographic inertia, this collapse in birth rates anticipates accelerated population aging, a lower availability of workers in the labor force, and an unsustainable fiscal pressure on pension systems and health services.
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According to the report from the Sample Registration System (SRS), the most extensive demographic survey of the nation published by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India, in the 2000s the national TFR averaged 3.3 births per woman. Journalist Priyanka Shankar reported for Al Jazeera on June 9, 2026 that India surpassed China in 2023 as the most populous nation with 1.5 billion inhabitants, following the first alerts recorded in 2022 by the National Family Health Survey.
The phenomenon is attributed to greater access to education, contraceptives, and rising child-rearing costs. Economist Dipa Sinha told Al Jazeera: “The global fertility rate tends to fall when more women in society have access to education, contraceptives, and greater autonomy in decision-making within households”. The specialist added: “It also falls when the economy becomes expensive, making raising children costly as well”. Additionally, infant mortality decreased from 30 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2019 to 24 per 1,000 in 2024.
India
From a market perspective, India entered the demographic dividend phase in 2005, a period where the working-age population (15 to 64 years) exceeds dependent sectors, a window that UNFPA predicts will last until 2055. While Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong took advantage of this phase in the 1960s, and China in the 1980s by implementing market reforms, India risks losing this benefit due to persistent unemployment. Dipa Sinha warned: “If fewer children are born, in about 30 to 40 years India will have more elderly people who will not be able to participate as much in the labor force, which will pose a challenge for the country's workforce”.
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These asymmetries generate serious political disputes: southern states accuse the federal government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of punishing them with fewer fiscal resources. Furthermore, the delimitation policy that will reassign parliamentary seats according to the census that will conclude in 2027 threatens to cut their legislative representation. Dipa Sinha emphasized: “When the delimitation comes into effect, there is fear that the southern seats' participation in Parliament will decrease”.
Historically, state population control policies included campaigns of forced sterilization of 8 million people in the 1970s. Although Narendra Modi warned in 2019 about a "demographic explosion," the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) have promoted debates on community birth rates.
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In February, the leader of the RSS, Mohan Bhagwat, called on Hindu families to have 3 to 4 children. However, official statistics indicate that in the 2011 census, Muslims made up 13% and their fertility fell sharply from 4.41 in 1992 to 2.36 in 2021, while in the Hindu community it decreased from 3.3 to 1.94.
Without a national strategy, states like Andhra Pradesh (TFR of 1.4) offer incentives of 30,000 rupees (314 dollars) for a third child and 40,000 rupees (418 dollars) for a fourth. Meanwhile, Goa, Karnataka, and Telangana have opened in vitro fertilization (IVF) centers. Dipa Sinha concluded: “It is important for countries like India to develop a public policy based on their demographic structure and future needs. Therefore, if we are going to be an aging population, we must be prepared to assist many elderly people”, urging to ensure the sustainability of health care, pensions, and social security in old age.
