"The willingness to invest has clearly improved, but it is still conditioned by key macroeconomic variables. Real interest rates continue to be the main obstacle to turning optimism into effective investment," Steiger added.
68% of respondents identified high interest rates as the main brake, while 22% still distrust exchange rate stability when it comes to taking on debt in dollars.
Milei's influence on expectations in the agricultural sector
Support for Javier Milei's administration is overwhelming among landowners.
65% of producers believe that the government has met their expectations, while 10% assert that it has exceeded them.
Only a quarter of the sample (25%) state that they are disappointed or that their expectations have not been met.
"There is a clear appreciation of the economic course, especially in terms of fiscal order and predictability. However, producers remain cautious and aware that stabilization processes take time," Steiger highlighted in the report.
Despite this alignment with the Casa Rosada, the sector is unable to shake off its structural fears.
Fear of 2027
64% of producers still believe that the threat of a return of populism in the 2027 elections has not been eliminated.
This defensive bias explains why, in the face of a wheat harvest that is expected to be a record for 2025/26, more than half of producers (51-52%) have decided not to set prices yet, while they wait for an improvement in international quotations or greater clarity at the local level.
Finally, the report explores the international positioning of Argentina's agricultural sector.
In a world that tends toward regional blocs, 95% of producers stated that a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the United States would be "highly beneficial".
According to the latest edition of the Ag Barometer Austral, prepared by the Agribusiness and Food Center of Universidad Austral, rural producers' confidence in the Javier Milei government has reached its highest level since 2019.
The overall index stood at 159 points, which represents a 28% jump compared with the previous measurement.
The survey is conducted among 400 agricultural producers with a gross production value equal to or greater than U$S 200,000.
La confianza de los productores rurales en Milei alcanzó su nivel más alto desde 2019.
This figure represents the historical maximum of the series, managing to break through the barrier of 158 points that had been recorded in July 2019, weeks before the shock that the unfavorable PASO primary result for Mauricio Macri's reelection aspirations caused in the markets.
The current rebound is supported by a substantial improvement in present conditions (+43%) and in future expectations (+23%).
Improvement in present conditions for the agricultural sector
"We are facing a very significant change in producers' mood. The improvement in present conditions is especially meaningful because it indicates that optimism is no longer supported only by the future, but also by the perception of the present", stated Ag Barometer Austral director Carlos Steiger.
The report reveals that the "appetite" for growth has returned to producers' decisions.
The Investment Expectations Index for fixed assets experienced a 53% increase, reaching 111 points.
This is the second-best historical mark, only surpassed by the records from early 2022. Today, 55% of respondents state that it is a good time to sink capital into the business.
Investments in the agricultural sector
Land purchases: 29%
Tractors: 27%
Breeding cattle: 20%
Fattening cattle: 19%
However, there are 38% of producers who view the context favorably but prefer to wait.
The obstacle is not a lack of confidence in the model, but the cost of money.
