The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected a growth of the Gross Domestic Product of Argentina (GDP) of 5.5% for the year 2025, driven by the strength of domestic demand and statistical carryover effects following a significant improvement in the second half of 2024. This projection represents a strong endorsement of President Javier Milei's economic program.
According to the latest report from the multilateral organization's staff, after a slight contraction of 1.7% in 2024—a direct legacy of an economy devastated by decades of populism, unsupported issuance, and unproductive Kirchnerist statism—Argentina enters a new stage. The text clearly states that growth will be sustained "by solid domestic demand and the statistical carryover effects of a stronger underlying growth dynamic during the second half of 2024."
The report doesn't shy away from highlighting the contrast between the recent past and the near future. In raw figures, Argentina's GDP per capita fell by 10% between 2011 and 2023, which the Fund describes as a true "reverse miracle." Compared to countries like Colombia, Peru, Chile, Mexico, and Brazil, Argentina lagged in growth, productivity, and investment. While Colombia and Peru grew at an average of nearly 3% annually and Chile and Mexico exceeded 2%, Argentina remained stagnant at an average of 0%.
Contrary to the past, Milei's government has achieved what seemed impossible: organizing public accounts in record time. The IMF projects a primary surplus of 1.3% of GDP for this year, although the Government has already anticipated it could reach 1.6%, in anticipation of a challenging international environment. For the medium term, a current primary surplus of 2.5% of GDP is expected, thanks to a combination of fiscal discipline, tax restructuring, and a pension reform.
