Jair Bolsonaro would defeat dictator Lula da Silva if elections were held today.

Amid the political persecution in Brazil, a recent survey by AtlasIntel in collaboration with Bloomberg revealed, just like other polls, that former president Jair Bolsonaro remains the main rival of dictator Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and if the presidential elections were held today, he would win.

This data represents a direct threat to Lula's power, who has not hidden his intention to politically eliminate his main adversary by promoting false criminal cases and his intention to ban him.

According to the measurement published on Tuesday, July 8, corresponding to the Latam Pulse Brasil study for the month of June, Bolsonaro would obtain 48.6% of the votes compared to Lula's 47.8%, a difference of 0.8 percentage points.

This way, the survey reveals that Bolsonaro is the only one who can defeat Lula at the polls. No other opposition leader, neither Tarcísio de Freitas, nor Michelle Bolsonaro, nor Romeu Zema, nor Ratinho Jr., manages to surpass him in a runoff scenario.

This increasingly clear electoral scenario coincides with an intense judicial and media offensive against Jair Bolsonaro driven by the socialist dictator Lula himself. Since his return to power, the leader of the Workers' Party has undertaken a systematic political persecution against the former president, seeking to ban him, disqualify him, or directly imprison him under unfounded accusations, in collaboration with the Supreme Court of Brazil, controlled by Lula.

AtlasIntel's figures, considered the most accurate pollster in the last three Brazilian elections, also show that Bolsonaro leads in a first-round scenario, with a 1.6-point advantage over Lula. The survey was based on 2,621 interviews conducted between June 27 and 30.

Faced with this outlook, the Brazilian dictatorship has intensified its efforts to attack the former president judicially. The false criminal cases seek to consolidate a scenario of proscription that would prevent Bolsonaro from competing in 2026. Lula, increasingly weakened in the polls, doesn't seem willing to face the right-wing leader again in a democratic election.

The strategy is clear: eliminate the most competitive adversary by non-electoral means. The judicial pressure against Bolsonaro is seen by broad sectors of Brazilian society as an authoritarian maneuver typical of a government that doesn't trust the will of the people.