The prestigious bank JP Morgan improved its assessment of Argentina in its latest regional report. In this context, the entity positioned the country as one of the markets with the highest upside potential in Latin America for the second half of 2025.
The bank emphasizes that the country is going through a delicate stage of economic transformation, although with encouraging signs, especially after the removal of currency controls, one of the most important decisions by the Government of Javier Milei.
Despite initial concerns from some sectors, the measure was implemented without triggering a run on the foreign exchange market or a surge in inflation. On the contrary, the consumer price index recorded an increase of less than 2% per month, the lowest level since the start of the pandemic.
EN VIVO: el presidente Javier Milei participa de la Expo EFI
The national legislative elections
Looking ahead to the October legislative elections, the bank highlights that Argentina is at a decisive political moment. Preliminary polls in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires anticipate a major victory for the ruling party, which could reinforce political stability and ensure the continuity of the libertarian economic program.
This optimistic outlook is reinforced by lower inflation, an improvement in external indicators, and a strengthened real exchange rate following the lifting of currency controls.
In terms of investment, JP Morgan set for the first time a concrete target for the Merval index: 3,000,000 points by year-end, representing a potential increase of more than 45% compared to current levels. In a positive scenario (bull case), the index could reach 3,500,000 points, while in a more adverse context it is estimated at around 1,500,000 points, reflecting the high volatility of the local market.
Among the highlighted recommendations, Grupo Galicia (GGAL) stands out as the main macroeconomic bet, given its correlation with policy and economic expectations. Likewise, shares in the energy sector such as Vista Oil & Gas (VIST) and YPF are highlighted, along with Corporación América Airports (CAAP), recently added with an “Overweight” recommendation due to its connection with the recovery of tourism and trade.
Javier Milei, presidente de Argentina.
For those investors interested in the long-term mining sector, JP Morgan suggests Lundin Gold (LUG) as an indirect way to capture the potential of Argentine lithium.
Within its global strategy on emerging economies, JP Morgan points to Argentina as one of the most attractive off-index alternatives. That is, although the country is not part of the main benchmark indices, it presents high untapped potential.
According to the bank, despite its low representation in institutional portfolios, Argentina combines very low valuations, an ongoing macroeconomic reconfiguration, and limited global exposure, making it an opportunity with an asymmetric profile for investors with a high risk tolerance.
Meanwhile, the bank estimates that the international context could play in the country's favor. In its global analysis, it anticipates that a possible depreciation of the US dollar, along with a more relaxed global interest rate cycle, could favor the movement of capital toward emerging markets, especially those that are not yet saturated by investor interest. Under this logic, Argentina stands out as an attractive destination due to its historical underweighting in global portfolios.
Although the bank points out that the sustainability of this scenario will depend on key factors such as fiscal adjustment, political developments, and the achievement of macroeconomic objectives, the overall outlook is positive.
The report concludes that “Argentina offers more upside and downside potential than the rest of the region, but for those willing to tolerate risk, the time to take a position is now.”
