A key Trump ally is running for governor of New York

Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, representative of upstate New York and one of the most influential figures in the Republican Party nationally, is seriously considering a run for governor of the state in 2026.

The news came shortly after former President Donald Trump posted on social media praising Stefanik as "GREAT!!!", which has fueled speculation about her political future.

Stefanik, 40, would be the first Republican governor of New York since George Pataki, who left office in 2006. According to sources close to the congresswoman, she has been encouraged to run by President Trump's allies, influential donors, state Republican Party leaders, and longtime friends.

Currently, Stefanik has around USD 10 million available in campaign funds, high approval among Republican voters in the state, and has demonstrated a solid electoral base by outperforming Trump in her district in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 elections.

In the last elections, she received 62% of the votes in her rural district, making her one of the best-performing Republicans in the state.

Stefanik, chair of the House Republican Conference, was proposed in early 2024 by Trump as ambassador to the United Nations. However, her nomination was withdrawn to avoid losing her key vote in the tight Republican majority in the House.

Amid rumors about her possible candidacy, Stefanik issued a statement citing a recent Marist College poll, which shows that 46% of New Yorkers disapprove of current Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul's administration, while only 39% approve.

Stefanik took the opportunity to harshly criticize Hochul, accusing her of incompetence, corruption, and implementing radical left policies that have led to a security crisis, high taxes, and the exodus of businesses and families from the state.

"This latest poll confirms what all New Yorkers already know: we must fire Kathy Hochul in 2026 to save New York," Stefanik stated. She also called Hochul "the worst governor in the United States" and blamed her administration for the crime crisis, fiscal collapse, and immigration chaos due to sanctuary city policies.

Although Stefanik hasn't made a final decision yet, her potential candidacy has caused excitement among New York Republicans. Sources close to the congresswoman indicate that she is the most popular Republican in the state and has the profile to attract independent and moderate voters.

However, other Republican hopefuls have also expressed interest in the gubernatorial race. Among them are Representative Mike Lawler, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman and Carl Hyde Jr., Bethany Town Supervisor.

Lawler, who represents part of the northern New York suburbs, has mentioned both seriously and jokingly his desire to reach Albany, and has indicated that he will make a decision by mid-2025.

On the Democratic side, Hochul faces a challenging scenario. Besides her low approval ratings, she could be challenged in a primary by figures from her own party.

Among the names mentioned as potential rivals are centrist Congressman Ritchie Torres and former progressive Representative Jamaal Bowman, as well as her own Lieutenant Governor, Antonio Delgado.

Trump, meanwhile, has shown consistent support for Stefanik. In January, when withdrawing her nomination as ambassador, he explained that he needed to keep every Republican vote in Congress to advance his agenda.

"Elise has been a vital part of our efforts from the beginning," Trump wrote on Truth Social, adding that he preferred Stefanik to remain in Congress to support initiatives like historic tax cuts, economic growth, and border security.

Despite the Democratic dominance in New York, Republicans are optimistic about the 2026 election. In the last presidential election, Trump managed to reduce his margin of defeat in the state to 13 points against Kamala Harris, a 10-point improvement compared to his performance against Joe Biden in 2020.

Additionally, in 2022, Republican Lee Zeldin lost the governorship by only 6.4 points, the party's best result since Pataki's reelection in 2002.

For Republican strategists, the fact that multiple qualified candidates are considering the race demonstrates that Hochul is vulnerable. However, Democrats argue that the potential Republican candidates are too aligned with Trump and his policies, something they claim disqualifies them with the state's electorate.

If she runs and wins, Stefanik wouldn't have to leave her congressional seat until the end of 2026. Until then, her presence is crucial to maintaining the slim Republican majority in the House, as she recently demonstrated by casting the decisive vote to approve Trump's budget framework by 216 to 215.