A comprehensive provincial survey conducted by the consulting firm Rubikon Intel, led by former Kirchnerist official Fernando "Chino" Navarro and analyst Roberto Wohlgemuth, revealed striking data in the political landscape of Buenos Aires province.
La Libertad Avanza (LLA), President Javier Milei's party, is winning in seven out of eight electoral sections, relegating the united Peronism, under the Fuerza Patria banner, to second place in almost the entire Buenos Aires territory.
The survey, conducted between July 30 and August 2 on 10,370 cases, shows that even in the Third Section, a traditional Kirchnerist stronghold, Lieutenant Governor Verónica Magario's lead over LLA candidate Maximiliano Bondarenko is reduced to just 4 points (26.6% versus 22.6%). The historic difference of more than 20 points that PJ maintained in that region has disappeared, reflecting the wear and tear of a model that is unable to retain its own electorate.
La encuesta.
The First Electoral Section, now the most significant, with 4.73 million eligible voters, shows a decisive advantage for LLA: Diego Valenzuela reaches 36.6%, surpassing Kirchnerist minister Gabriel Katopodis (21.6%) by 15 points, a direct blow to the Kirchnerist structure in the north and west of Greater Buenos Aires.
The libertarian surge is mirrored in other key sections. In the Fifth, which includes Mar del Plata, Guillermo Montenegro (LLA) sweeps with 43.8% compared to Fernanda Raverta's 20.3%, a leader of La Cámpora. In the Second Section, LLA leads with 31.6% versus PJ's 20.3%. The same occurs in the Fourth (21.6% to 18.1%), Sixth (36.8% to 18.7%), Seventh (26% to 17.2%), and Eighth (30.1% to 24.4%).
The data show a consistent phenomenon: in every corner of the province, Kirchnerism is losing ground, even in districts where its historical presence seemed unquestionable. The image of an invincible Peronism in Buenos Aires is fading in the face of the rise of a movement that, in no more than 2 years, has gone from being an emerging force to competing for provincial legislative control.
La encuesta.
On September 7, Buenos Aires residents will renew 46 deputies and 23 provincial senators, in addition to municipal positions in the 135 districts. If these results were reflected at the polls, La Libertad Avanza would not only achieve unprecedented legislative growth, but could also leave Kirchnerism without a majority in the Legislature, a development that would completely change the political balance in the country's most populous province.
La Libertad Avanza relies on a clear message against insecurity, political spending, and state inefficiency, while PJ faces the political cost of years of economic crisis, runaway inflation, and deterioration of public services. The result is an electorate increasingly unwilling to support a model that, despite decades of hegemony, has not solved the province's problems and, on the contrary, has worsened them.
