La Libertad Avanza would win in the three key electoral sections of PBA

The electoral race in Buenos Aires province has entered its final stretch and, with two weeks to go before the September 7 election, polls show an increasingly favorable scenario for La Libertad Avanza, the party led by President Javier Milei.

A recent study by the consulting firm Isasi - Burdman, known for its track record and recent accurate predictions, forecasts that the libertarian ruling party could prevail in the three most important electoral sections of the district, even in the Third, a traditional Kirchnerist stronghold.

The survey, conducted between August 13 and 20 on 2,118 valid cases, measured voting intention in the First, Third, and Fifth Electoral Sections, which together account for about 80% of the Buenos Aires electoral roll. The most surprising finding is not the lead in the First and Fifth, already anticipated by other polls, but the strong advance in the Third Section, where La Matanza is located, historically considered the heart of Peronism.

Milei increases his support while Kicillof weakens

The study also measured the images of the main political figures. President Javier Milei keeps a significant level of support in the province: 43% positive image and 46% approval of his administration, compared to 38% and 47% negative opinions, respectively. The analysis shows a divided electorate but with a hard core of support for the Government's direction.

In contrast, the ultra-Kirchnerist governor Axel Kicillof shows much weaker numbers: just 30% positive image and 34% approval of his administration, compared to 45% and 58% disapproval.

Numbers section by section

In the First Section (which includes districts in the northern and western suburbs such as Morón, Tres de Febrero, and Vicente López, with more than 4.7 million voters), LLA + PRO leads Peronism by 9 points in voting intention by bloc (36% to 27%). In the candidate race, Diego Valenzuela (LLA + PRO) stands at 34%, surpassing Gabriel Katopodis (27%).

The most striking data emerges in the Third Section, with more than 4.6 million voters, where the consulting firm shows LLA + PRO ahead by 4 points both by bloc (35% to 31%) and by candidates (Maximiliano Bondarenko 34% vs. Verónica Magario 30%).

Finally, in the Fifth Section, where Mar del Plata is located and 1.29 million Buenos Aires residents vote, the libertarian advantage is overwhelming: 43% to 19% by bloc and 42% to 20% by candidates, with Guillermo Montenegro leading widely over Fernanda Raverta.

A scenario that strengthens La Libertad Avanza

The work of Isasi - Burdman confirms that the Buenos Aires political map is undergoing a structural change, with La Libertad Avanza consolidating its leadership in key areas and even challenging Peronism in its historic strongholds.

The September 7 election could mark a turning point in provincial politics, where the force led by Javier Milei, in alliance with PRO sectors, is not only positioned as the leading force in voting intention, but also appears capable of breaking Kirchnerism's territorial dominance in the Third Section.

If these numbers are confirmed at the polls, La Libertad Avanza would be in a position to reshape the balance of power in the Buenos Aires Legislature, giving a political boost to the national administration.