Milei's government leads Kirchnerism by more than 12 points, according to 10 surveys

With less than four months to go before the national legislative elections, the government of Javier Milei arrives with a clear electoral advantage, according to a 10-survey average conducted by Clarín.

La Libertad Avanza (LLA), the party of the Argentine president, averages 38.7% voting intention nationwide, compared to the 26% held by Kirchnerismo, which means a 12.7-point difference. This figure not only reflects a significant advantage, but also an upward trend that has been consolidated since April, when the difference was just 5.5 points.

The analysis takes into account studies from renowned consulting firms such as Opina Argentina, Giacobbe, Synopsis, Opinaia, Management & Fit, and Universidad de San Andrés, among others. All the polls agree in placing the ruling party in first place, with differences ranging from 5 to 19 points.

The evolution in the overall average shows an improvement of more than five points for LLA in the last two months, while Kirchnerismo fell by just over two points. This evolution not only reflects sustained growth for the ruling party, but also an erosion in the ability of its main opposition force to attract support.

The performance of the libertarian ruling party becomes even more relevant when analyzing the parliamentary map. In October, 127 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 24 in the Senate will be renewed, but LLA risks only 8 seats in the lower house and none in the upper house. By contrast, PRO and sectors of Peronism risk a much larger portion of their seats, which leaves the government with a wide margin to strengthen its position in Congress.

Regarding the poll that gives Milei's government the best result, it is Isasi-Burdman. According to their reports, La Libertad Avanza leads with a 19-point advantage: 42% versus 23% for Kirchnerismo. By contrast, the poll that gives the "worst" result is the latest study by Universidad de San Andrés, which also records the ruling party in the lead, but with a 5-point advantage over Kirchnerismo: 29% to 24%.

Another noteworthy fact is the decline of traditional political forces. PRO and non-Kirchnerista Peronism are tied at around 6.2%, far behind the main contenders. The left and UCR are even further behind, with 3.6% and 2.8% respectively.

The scenario anticipates a favorable result for Milei, who not only consolidates his leadership in the polls, but also expands his support amid an administration aimed at deeply transforming the country.