The sectors leading the RIGI investment boom in Javier Milei's Argentina

At the beginning of 2026, the Argentine economy was going through a period of transition marked by contrasts, but with a clear axis: the consolidation of a process of macroeconomic stabilization sustained by the fiscal surplus and a monetary policy aimed at normalizing the exchange rate regime. After years of structural imbalances, the organization of public accounts is positioned as the central pillar of the economic program. In this context, international organizations such as the Inter-American Development Bank project growth of close to 3.8% by 2026, placing Argentina as the fastest expanding economy in the region. This scenario responds to a combination of factors: structural reforms, investment incentives and a sustained reduction in fiscal pressure

.

Key tools include the Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI), which has allowed the unlocking of large scale projects in strategic sectors such as oil and mining. Added to this is the reduction of withholding from regional economies and the reduction of import tariffs, measures that lowered the cost of capital goods and productive inputs

, strengthening competitiveness.

Dynamic sectors: the drivers of the new model The new

economic scheme shows strong sectoral heterogeneity. While the aggregate level of activity shows growth, certain sectors are clearly leading. Economist Daniel Garro, director of Value International Group, says: “Everything that is energy, oil, gas, agro-industry, agriculture and financial services are the strongest part and will continue to be consolidated in the future.” In addition, he emphasizes that: “macroeconomics orders the scenario so that microeconomics resolves its efficiency”, referring to the impact of the reforms

.

Along the same lines, José Vargas, director of Evaluecon, describes the model as one of “two engines”, where activities with comparative advantages lead growth. It identifies Vaca Muerta, mining (lithium and copper), agro-industry and the knowledge economy as the main winners

.

The data support this trend: Financial intermediation:

+24.7% in 2025

Mining and quarrying: +8% Energy surplus:

USD 7,815 million

For his part, Osvaldo Giordano, president of Ieral, points out that between November 2023 and January 2025, activity grew 6.4% according to the EMAE, although with strong disparities.

Highlights: “Financial intermediation, mining and hydrocarbons and agriculture are the most dynamic sectors. Industry and construction record strong declines.” For Giordano, the future will depend on the depth of the reforms: “It depends on many factors, a very important one being the speed at which reforms that improve the environment for productive activity are progressing

.”

The impact of sectors such as Vaca Muerta already generates indirect effects on the real economy. According to Vargas: “The impact of Vaca Muerta is channeled through value chains such as logistics, transportation, infrastructure and industrial metalworking services.” Garro, meanwhile, warns of an emerging demographic phenomenon: “There are beginning to be a lot of moves, people moving from big cities to the interior”, stressing that the interior is more efficient “as there are no longer distributive policies”. While Giordano is cautious, he recognizes that full development will come with energy infrastructure that allows abundant and cheap gas, boosting new industries

.

The RIGI appears as one of the central pieces of the scheme. Garro defines it as a “total success”, stressing that projects must invest the 40% committed in the first two years. He also explains: “Milei's idea was a RIGI for the whole country (...) since it didn't work out, this scheme was implemented for those who put in a lot of money”. Former minister Domingo Cavallo agrees on the potential of the regime, although he raises the need to extend incentives to SMEs to expand the scope of growth

.

However, Giordano warns: “RIGI are investments that have been maturing for a long time. The reduction in withholding, being so partial, operated more like a gesture than a powerful incentive.” It also notes: “Dismantling tariff protection negatively affects protected sectors, although it benefits those who use these

products as inputs.”

The international context opens new windows. According to BBVA Research, a protracted conflict in the Middle East could increase global inflation, but favor Argentina as an energy exporter. The IDB, for its part, highlights the lithium opportunity within the “lithium triangle”, whose potential value is equivalent to several times the national GDP. In addition, it highlights that South America, as a “zone of peace”, is attractive to global investors. However, he warns: “Transforming lithium's potential into effective wealth depends on the quality of regulatory frameworks and political stability

.”

Despite the change of course, challenges persist. Inflation, although in decline, closed 2025 at 31.5% and is projected to be around 24% by 2026. Cavallo warns: “If the country risk rate does not fall, a possible devaluation leap will always be like the sword of Damocles”, stressing the need to move towards full exchange rate liberalization. At the labor level, unemployment reached 7.5% at the end of 2025, the highest level since 2020 for a fourth quarter, with an informality of 43%. BBVA points out that growth is concentrated in sectors with lower employment generation

.

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The end of privileges The

new model also involves transition costs. Sectors dependent on subsidies, protection or price distortions face serious difficulties. Vargas warns: “There are sectors that today struggle to survive, especially those focused exclusively

on domestic consumption.”

Among those “affected” are:

Textile and footwear industry

Electronic assembly

Construction and public works

SMEs dependent on subsidies or negative rates

Giordano is adamant: “The rules of the game prevailing until 2023 induced the development of many activities with very low levels of competitiveness”.

Garro, in a cruder definition, concludes by quoting Warren Buffett: “When the tide goes down, you realize who had mesh and who was naked”, referring to companies that supported their profitability on a “fiction of low costs”

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