This growth would represent an injection of billions of dollars over the next ten years
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A recent report from the Rosario Board of Trade (BCR) estimates that, thanks to the reduction in export duties implemented by the Government of Javier Milei and the elimination of the exchange rate gap, Argentina's agro-industrial production could increase by 8% by 2035. This growth would represent a cumulative injection of 28.8 billion dollars over the next ten years.
The study, prepared by the BCR's Directorate of Information and Economic Studies using the AGMEMOD Argentina model, a tool that allows simulation of the impact of changes in public policies on the country's main grain chains, projects that, under the new conditions, total grain production would reach 172.3 million tons, compared to the 159.3 million projected in a scenario without changes.
The permanent reduction of export duties, made official by President Javier Milei during the latest edition of the Rural Exhibition, includes reductions in key crops.
Javier Milei, presidente de Argentina.
The reduction in export duties
For corn and sorghum, the rates are reduced from 12% to 9.5%, while those for wheat and barley, already previously announced, are now made definitive. Regarding the sunflower complex, export duties are set at 5.5% for the grain and 4% for its derivatives.
In the case of soybeans, the new rates are set at 26% for beans and 24.5% for by-products, replacing the previous levels of 33% and 31%, respectively.
Added to this is the unification of the exchange market implemented in April, which eliminated the difference between the official dollar and financial exchange rates. This change in the macroeconomic and fiscal environment improves producers' margins, as it increases the proportion of the export value (FOB) that is actually received, even considering that input costs were also calculated at the official exchange rate.
Javier Milei, presidente de Argentina.
This new favorable context directly influences the sector's production decisions, promoting an expansion in cultivated area and greater incorporation of technology. According to projections, the total value of production could reach 50.1 billion dollars in 2035.
Beyond the impact on agriculture, this additional injection of foreign currency during the 2025/26 to 2034/35 seasons is expected to generate positive effects on various related activities: transportation, input marketing, financial and logistics services, processing, export, and rural employment, among others.
