Thanks to Vaca Muerta, the energy surplus reached USD 2.684 billion.

The first quarter of 2025 closed with a positive balance of USD 2.684 billion in the energy balance, which represented a year-on-year improvement of USD 246 million, according to data from the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (IARAF). This result was achieved despite the drop in international oil prices.

The IARAF report detailed that the surplus was due to both the quantity effect and the price effect. While prices contributed USD 127 million to the balance, the increase in exported volumes added an additional USD 118 million.  Energy exports totaled USD 3.634 billion between January and April, compared to imports of USD 950 million.

Growing exports, although at a lower price

In April, external energy sales reached USD 851 million. Although prices fell 14% year-on-year, the quantities exported increased by 4.5%, according to the ACM consultancy. This dynamic allowed for partial compensation of the loss of income due to lower quotations. Meanwhile, domestic fuel prices reflected this trend with a 4% drop in gasoline and diesel.

Meanwhile,  energy imports grew to USD 278 million in April, a year-on-year increase of more than USD 100 million. According to ACM and LCG, the increase was due to seasonal factors and higher domestic demand, although lower prices moderated the total impact.

Key infrastructure and optimistic projections

The LCG consultancy highlighted the role of infrastructure in energy performance. The Perito Moreno gas pipeline allowed for a reduction in import dependency during the months of highest consumption. This resulted in significant savings for external accounts.

The Undersecretary of Liquid Fuels, Federico Veller, projected at a conference in Houston that the energy surplus could reach USD 8 billion in 2025, above the USD 5.668 billion of 2024. "The growth of production in Vaca Muerta and the international export conditions position us as a relevant energy player," he assured, according to Reuters.

A strategic role for exchange rate policy

In 2024, Argentina achieved its largest energy surplus in 18 years. With exports of USD 9.677 billion and a 49.4% drop in imports, the balance was USD 5.668 billion. The main buyer was Chile, with USD 2.844 billion, followed by Brazil.

The energy sector consolidated as one of the pillars of the trade surplus. However, the inflow of foreign currency from exports still doesn't compensate for other outflows, such as spending on tourism and consumption abroad, exacerbated by the appreciation of the peso during Javier Milei's administration.