The Government consolidates the strengthening of reserves and sends a signal of predictability to the markets on the eve of important debt maturities
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International reserves of the Central Bank of the República Argentina (BCRA) reached this Friday the highest level since the inauguration of Javier Milei, in a context marked by macroeconomic order and coordination between the Treasury and the monetary authority. Gross holdings rose to USD 43.610 billion, reflecting a jump of more than USD 1 billion in the last week and consolidating a key milestone of the current administration.
According to the daily report of the BCRA, only on Friday reserves grew by USD 596 million compared to Thursday. This is the highest figure since August 2025, when they had reached USD 43.014 billion. The weekly increase totaled USD 1.197 billion and occurred on the eve of a debt maturity of USD 4.2 billion scheduled for next January 9.
Reservas Internacionales del BCRA.
The performance was driven by the rise in the value of gold, the appreciation of the Chinese yuan, and the inflow of funds from international organizations. The Central Bank holds 1.98 million ounces of gold, whose price stood at USD 4,561. According to calculations by Fernando Marull, from consulting firm FMyA, the value of the gold held by the BCRA increased by 73% so far this year, driven by the record price of the commodity. This increase represents an improvement of USD 3.9 billion in reserves. Currently, gold exceeds USD 9 billion and has raised its share from 15% to 20% of the total.
This strengthening was complemented by foreign currency purchases made by the National Treasury. The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, confirmed that almost USD 900 million were acquired outside the Mercado Libre de Cambios (MLC), with the aim of meeting January's debt payment without financial stress.
Between December 4 and last Wednesday, dollar deposits of the Treasury at the BCRA went from USD 97 million to around USD 2 billion, according to Invecq. The increase, above 1,900%, was explained by market purchases of about USD 630 million, net inflows from international organizations —mainly from the IDB— of USD 360 million and USD 910 million from the placement of BONAR 2029N.
The economist from Outlier, Gabriel Caamaño, pointed out that "the data from the BCRA's daily balance sheet for Monday 12/22 are once again indicative of net foreign exchange sales in the MLC and net payments to IOs", which led to Treasury deposits falling by USD 35 million, to USD 1.834 billion.
BCRA.
In parallel, the Government moved forward with the signing of contracts for the concession and transfer of shares of the hydroelectric dams of Comahue: Alicurá, El Chocón, Piedra del Águila, and Cerros Colorados. The operation, the final stage of the privatization process, is associated with an inflow of USD 700 million. If those funds are credited before January, the amount pending to meet the maturities would be reduced to about USD 1.7 billion.
A report by Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI) highlighted that the Treasury accumulated in December estimated net purchases of USD 408 million in the MLC, equivalent to USD 29 million per day, above November, when they totaled USD 280 million (USD 16 million per day). PPI detailed that, after an erratic start, purchases consolidated in the second week, although in the third week sales "to curb volatility" reappeared, with a net selling balance of USD 168 million.
Meanwhile, LCG warned that net reserves would be negative at USD 405 million. Under the IMF methodology —which doesn't include the revaluation of gold and the yuan or the disbursement of USD 14 billion—, they would reach –USD 15.702 billion. "The agreed target is impossible to meet and the Government will have to resort to a new waiver", they pointed out, with a gap of USD 11.15 billion compared to the revised target.
In this context, the BCRA announced a new reserve accumulation program through direct foreign currency purchases in the MLC within the exchange rate bands. The second phase of the plan, presented by Santiago Bausili, will allow the Central Bank to buy dollars regardless of the exchange rate level and aims to strengthen reserves, in line with requests from the IMF and economists from different schools of thought.
The scheme envisages that the monetary base will go from 4.2% to 4.8% of GDP by December 2026, which would imply purchases of up to USD 10 billion, or USD 17 billion if the demand for pesos grows by one additional point. In the initial stage, the BCRA will be able to purchase up to 5% of the daily traded volume.
