Goldman Sachs Bank expects a decline in inflation, economic growth, and continuity of Milei's reforms
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A new report from the U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs outlined an economic outlook for the region and devoted a relevant section to Argentina, with projections that anticipate a marked slowdown in inflation, continuity of fiscal balance, and growth in economic activity in the coming years.
Among the key data, the document estimates that, thanks to the successful economic program of the government of Javier Milei, Argentine inflation could stand at 20% in 2026, which would represent the lowest level since 2013.
The analysis indicates that, after two consecutive years with triple-digit inflation, the disinflation process would continue in a sustained manner. By the end of 2025, Goldman Sachs projects an inflation rate of 30.6%, a figure that would be the lowest since 2017. In that regard, the U.S. bank EEUU states: “We forecast a further slowdown to 20% in 2026, the lowest level since 2013”.
Javier Milei, presidente de Argentina.
According to the report, this evolution of prices would be associated with the consolidation of the strong fiscal balance implemented by Milei's government, the progress of economic reforms, and an improvement in business sector confidence.
In this context, the financial institution considers that the political scenario also plays a relevant role, by pointing out that the electoral performance of the ruling party in the midterm elections “reinforces governability” and could favor an increase in investment in the coming years.
Regarding economic activity, Goldman Sachs projects Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 4.4% for 2025 and 2.7% for 2026. According to the report, this expansion would be driven mainly by investment and consumption, within a framework of growing real wages and more favorable financial conditions.
The document also delves into the composition of the expected growth. For 2026, Goldman Sachs anticipates that the performance of the economy will be stronger than what annual averages reflect, due to a sharp reduction in statistical carryover.
In that sense, it estimates that this effect will fall from 3.1% in 2025 to just 0.5% in 2026, which would mean that the expansion will depend to a greater extent on the economy's own momentum and not on factors inherited from the previous year.
El presidente Javier Milei.
Another central axis of the report is total factor productivity. The bank considers that this variable “should benefit through deregulation, structural reforms, a more favorable regulatory framework for companies and investment, and the gradual easing of capital controls and financial repression, driven to a large extent by price dynamics in Argentina”.
Finally, the analysis incorporates the political and fiscal front into its projections. Goldman Sachs expects Milei's government to maintain a firm commitment to fiscal discipline for the third consecutive year.
It also states: “The electoral outcome also improved the prospects for the government's structural reform agenda in the second half of its term, and legislative priorities are expected to focus on labor (starting in February 2026), tax, and pension reforms, along with efforts to codify the extensive deregulation agenda driven through executive decrees over the past two years”.
Taken together, the report presents a scenario of disinflation, economic growth, and continuity of reforms, with 20% inflation in 2026 as one of the main milestones projected for the Argentine economy under the Milei administration.
