The U.S. election that could put Republican control of the Senate at stake

The state of Texas has become the epicenter of the most interesting electoral contest within the Republican Party. In February 2026, the Texas Republican Party set the internal elections for the Texas Senate seat, currently held and sought to be retained by the historic John Cornyn. 

John Cornyn is the current senior senator for Texas. He assumed his seat in 2002 and, over time, has become a highly influential figure within the Republican Party, aligned with the party's most traditionalist faction. With a career that includes having served as attorney general of his state and president of the Texas Supreme Court, Cornyn represents the Republican establishment in this election with a moderate profile. 

Despite not holding control of any Senate committee, Cornyn enjoys being one of the few senators with access to the select Senate Intelligence Committee.

Additionally, in January of this year, Cornyn was one of three Republican senators who sought to assume the role of Republican majority leader following Mitch McConnell's resignation from the leadership of the upper chamber's bloc. However, his candidacy did not garner enough support, and Cornyn's power gradually faded. 

Some Republicans doubt that Cornyn can sustain his candidacy, given the current state of the conservative base in Texas. The incumbent senator earned the enmity of the base in 2022, when he led the passage in Congress of the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, a law that addressed gun control and school safety after the shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde. That same year, Cornyn was booed at the Texas Republican Party convention.

The most hardline conservative base has imposed its agenda and leadership, pressuring the party and enabling the emergence of new figures. Ken Paxton currently holds Cornyn's former job as Texas attorney general and is one of Trump's closest allies in the state. Paxton joins this list, seeking to displace the old guard. 

Although the advance of the MAGA wing within the Republican Party has faced some obstacles, there are already several precedents in which more conservative candidates aligned with the hard core ofDonald Trump, such as J.D. Vance, who in 2022 won the primary for the Senate seat in Ohio, have managed to prevail over historic figures from the party's moderate wing. 

The latest polls show a complicated scenario for Cornyn against a very consolidated Paxton. The primary between the two would be won by the current attorney general, who now comfortably leads with a 22-point advantage over Cornyn.

However, in a hypothetical matchup in the general election, Paxton would be in a virtual tie with the candidate put forward by the Democratic Party.  This dynamic is causing concern among Republican leaders, who fear losing a seat that Texas has kept in GOP hands for decades.

The fight to maintain control of the upper chamber is central to the political and legislative agenda of Donald Trump's party, whose endorsement is crucial for both Republican candidates, since it can tip the balance in this contest that represents much more than a simple electoral confrontation.

Cornyn and his allies argue that if Paxton wins the Republican Party nomination, the party will be forced to allocate more resources to defend and expand its majority in the Senate.

"The main concern is that nobody wants to spend a large amount of money in Texas, where we should be able to win easily," Cornyn said a few days ago.