Illegal immigration and the low birth rate among white people are the main causes of the decline
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The United States is undergoing a deep demographic transformation that is redefining the composition of its population and raising political, cultural, and economic questions for the coming decades.
According to the latest Census data, the percentage of the white population, which has always been the country's majority group, continues to decrease at a steady pace with no signs of stabilization, dropping from a peak of nearly 90% in 1940 to projections indicating that the white population will fall below 50% by 2045.
Historical data
Historical figures show the magnitude of the change: in 1940, nearly 90% of Americans were white, a percentage that marked the highest peak ever recorded in the nation's history.
Una familia blanca.
However, since the mid-20th century, the trend began to reverse steadily. By 1980, the proportion of non-Hispanic whites had dropped to around 80%. In 2002 it was already at 69.1%, and in 2020 it fell to 61.6%, marking a historic low up to this point. By 2022, the indicator dropped again to 59.2%, confirming a downward trajectory without interruption.
The 2020 Census was especially significant, as for the first time it showed an absolute numerical reduction in the non-Hispanic white population. Between 2010 and 2020, this group decreased by 3%, equivalent to 5.1 million people, with declines recorded in 35 states. Although the total population grew in 32 states, the increase came almost exclusively from Hispanic, Asian, and other nonwhite racial groups.
The states with the most pronounced declines were Connecticut, with -10%, followed by California, Maryland, and New Jersey, each with 8% decreases. Meanwhile, states such as West Virginia, Illinois, and Mississippi experienced reductions in both their total population and their non-Hispanic white population.
El Censo de 2020 en EEUU.
Causes of the decline in the white population
Regarding the causes behind this transformation, three central factors affecting the white population stand out: low birth rates, greater aging, and illegal immigration.
White women have, on average, fewer children than women belonging to groups such as the Latino group. In addition, the white population ages more rapidly, with more deaths than births in several states. Added to this is the fact that, unlike what happened throughout the 19th century and the early 20th century, immigration from Europe has practically ceased to be a growth factor.
Currently, most foreigners come from Latin America and Asia, among other continents with little "white" population, especially through massive illegal immigration, something that has notably affected the ethnic composition of the US.
Official projections from the Census Bureau anticipate that the non-Hispanic white population will fall below 50% in 2045, a development that would make the United States a nation without an absolute majority group.
This scenario is fueling a growing debate about the cultural, political, and economic impact of a country that is increasingly less white, in which migratory trends and demographic dynamics will redefine national identity in the coming decades.
