Buenos Aires X-ray: where PJ lost and where LLA grew

The difference in results between the September 7 elections and the legislative elections on October 26 in the most populated municipalities of the province of Buenos Aires reveals a major shift in the electoral map. In this context, Fuerza Patria lost 316,482 votes, while La Libertad Avanza gained 474,578 new votes.

These are different elections: in September, municipal and provincial positions were elected with party ballots; in October, national deputies with the Single Paper Ballot. Even with these caveats, in most districts PJ received fewer absolute votes, while LLA grew almost across the board.

The most severe losses for PJ occurred in Avellaneda (-33.6 thousand), Esteban Echeverría (-33.3 thousand), Lomas de Zamora (-32.5 thousand), Berazategui (-33 thousand), and Pilar (-30.8 thousand). Despite this, in several of these districts Peronism retained victory due to the territorial inertia of its mayorships. There were exceptions where PJ gained a few votes, but in all of them LLA grew more and narrowed the gap.

On the other hand, the libertarian surge was overwhelming in Mar del Plata (+45.6 thousand), La Plata (+29.7 thousand), La Matanza (+28.5 thousand), Lomas de Zamora (+23.8 thousand), Quilmes (+22.3 thousand), Pilar (+25.8 thousand), Berazategui (+22.8 thousand), Malvinas Argentinas (+23.6 thousand), Tigre (+32.8 thousand), and San Isidro (+22.5 thousand), among others. In aggregate terms, LLA went from almost 1,930,000 to 2,400,000 votes in these 26 municipalities.

The result heightened tensions within Peronism: Máximo Kirchner's gestures during Kicillof's speech after the defeat summed up a deeper debate. Leaders admit that the mayors "gave everything" in September, when their local power was at stake, and that in October there were no incentives because no mayor was on the ballot. The Single Paper Ballot, in addition to reducing fraud, diluted the pull of the long lists and exposed PJ's dependence on the municipal apparatus.

Meanwhile, Diego Santilli capitalized on Peronist fragmentation and achieved a victory over the empty candidacy of Jorge Taiana, crowning a national election where the vote for freedom once again prevailed. For Javier Milei's government, the behavior in Buenos Aires confirms that, even in historically adverse territory, the reform program and the liberal agenda are finding growing social support.

Peronism lost ground and LLA clearly occupied it, marking a political shift that few anticipated. If this dynamic continues, PJ's historic stronghold could turn violet in 2027.