According to consulting firm Orlando Ferreres, the economy grew by 0.7% in October and showed improvements in eight out of eleven sectors, with strong momentum from financial intermediation and agriculture
The electricity, gas, and water sector grew 1.8% year-on-year in October, reducing the accumulated contraction to 1.5%. Electricity generation showed a decrease of 0.2%, explained by lower residential demand according to CAMMESA.
Other relevant results:
Construction: +4% year-on-year
Wholesale and retail trade: +2.7%
Real estate, business, and rental activities: +2.6%
Transport, storage, and communications: +1.2%
The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) had already indicated a similar trend with the official data for September: the EMAE recorded a monthly growth of 0.5%, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and an annual cumulative of 5.2%. With this result, activity achieved three consecutive months of improvement, thus avoiding a technical recession.
The breakdown of the EMAE confirmed the sectoral trend already observed by the private survey:
Fishing led with an increase of 58.2%.
Financial intermediation once again stood out with +39.7%.
Real estate, business, and rental activities advanced 5%, being the second largest contributor to annual growth.
The Argentine economy once again showed in October an expansive behavior that even surprised private consulting firms, consolidating a shift in the trend that had been observed. According to the General Activity Index (IGA) prepared by Orlando J. Ferreres & Asociados, the general level recorded a monthly growth of 0.7% in October compared to September, following the upward revision of the previous month.
In year-on-year terms, the increase was 4.6% compared to October 2023, and the cumulative figure for the first ten months of the year closed with an improvement of 5.8%, a particularly significant figure in a period of strong economic reorganization. The IGA-OJF, which surveys 122 statistical series and serves as a leading indicator of GDP, showed "a better outlook for activity than expected in recent months", according to the consulting firm.
The rebound was neither isolated nor sectorally concentrated. Three branches with strong macroeconomic impact led the improvement:
Financial intermediation, with an impressive year-on-year increase of 31%, becoming the most dynamic sector.
Agriculture, which ended six consecutive months of decline and grew 4.8%, driven by the momentum of the agricultural segment (+12.3%) despite the difficulties in livestock (-2.4%).
Mining, which once again acted as an engine of expansion with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% and reached 56 consecutive months of growth. Crude oil production increased by 13.5%, while natural gas fell slightly by 7%.
Between January and October, mines and quarries accumulated a growth of 7.4%, confirming the relevance of the energy sector as the backbone of growth.
The manufacturing industry, heavily affected by previous distortions, showed a monthly improvement of 0.9%, although it was still 1.9% below the December 2023 level in seasonally adjusted terms. Year-on-year it fell by 1.1%, but the cumulative figure for the year showed an increase of 2%.
