The renowned British historian Niall Ferguson, a leading figure in classical liberal thought and author of key works such as The Ascent of Money, concluded his sixth visit to Argentina with an optimistic and emphatic outlook. "The outlook is very positive if they stay the political course and it will lead to an era of prosperity that Argentina hasn't experienced in a century," Ferguson stated in an interview with the media outlet La Nación.
Ferguson participated in a private meeting with President Javier Milei, the Minister of Economy, Luis "Toto" Caputo, and businessman Pierpaolo Barbieri, and made clear his fascination with the change of direction undertaken by the libertarian government.
The historian confessed that for years he used Argentina as the punchline of all economic jokes. However, today he is astonished by what he sees: an economic miracle.
An unprecedented regime change
For Ferguson, what is happening in the country is more than a simple economic recovery. "What I've seen since Javier Milei was elected at the end of 2023 is an economic miracle. In fact, it's more impressive than what Margaret Thatcher achieved and in a shorter period," the academic compared. In that sense, he highlighted the feat of reducing the fiscal deficit from 5% of GDP to zero in less than a year, something that in the United Kingdom of the 80s took a decade.
The historian identified the process as a "regime change," in line with the concept of Nobel laureate in Economics Thomas Sargent. "Not only did the fiscal policy change, nor just the monetary policy: Milei changed almost every aspect of the country's economic policy," he emphasized. In contrast to the pessimistic forecasts of establishment economists, Ferguson observed that the economy didn't collapse: "The economy not only didn't shrink. It grew."
Javier Milei y Niall Ferguson.
The British academic, who had already studied Argentine crises in his books, was especially impressed by the figure of the President. "What I like most about Milei is his combination of pragmatism and idealism," he stated. He added: "What other economist has so many followers on social media? I think there's something exceptional about this man, who has a great intellect."
Ferguson also highlighted Milei's courage in facing entrenched interests: "The wonderful thing about Milei is that he brings about a new political consensus with the support of young people."
The condemnation of the past and the historic opportunity
In his statements, Ferguson didn't spare criticism of Kirchnerism: "Argentina narrowly avoided hyperinflation and Milei and his ministers don't receive enough credit for having dealt with that national emergency. The currency was on the verge of collapse. Not only was there the enormous deficit, but also the enormous monetary surplus that, if the wrong decision had been made, could have exploded into hyperinflation. The situation was very dangerous and the previous government must be condemned for having led to that debacle."
Furthermore, he assessed that "this is a genuine regime change that condemns Peronism, and especially Kirchnerism, to the dustbin of Argentine history," highlighting that the current reforms are already beginning to reduce poverty.
EN VIVO: el presidente Javier Milei participa de la Expo EFI
Unlike the gradualist approach of former president Mauricio Macri, Ferguson believes that Milei's gamble is the right one: "The important thing Macri did was to show that gradualism doesn't work: drastic and revolutionary reforms are needed in the first 100 days of government."
A hope for the world
Ferguson also highlighted the global relevance of the Argentine experiment: "For someone like me, who grew up reading Adam Smith and believes in free market ideas, right now there aren't many places in the world that are a cause for joy."
Finally, he summed up his vision with a forceful phrase: "This is a fantastic moment in the history of Argentina. One of the best in your life or mine. We should celebrate it and the world should watch, because it has much to learn."
