An influential economist from the US highlighted Milei's successful economic plan in Argentina

An influential economist from the US highlighted Milei's successful economic plan in Argentina
Javier Milei and John H. Cochrane
porEditorial Team
Argentina

John H. Cochrane highlighted in an academic paper the elimination of the fiscal deficit and the sharp drop in inflation

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The prestigious American economist John H. Cochrane highlighted the successful economic plan of the Government of Javier Milei in a recent academic paper titled “Inflation”, where he analyzed the stabilization process carried out in Argentina and emphasized the results obtained in fiscal and monetary matters.

Cochrane, born in 1957, is a figure recognized for his contributions to financial economics and macroeconomics. Since 2015 he has served as Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University, and he is a professor of finance and economics (by courtesy) at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. Previously, he was a distinguished professor for more than two decades at the Booth School of Business of the University of Chicago, between 1994 and 2015.

In his paper, the economist reviewed the evolution of the Argentine economy and contextualized the fiscal problems that preceded the current libertarian administration. “Argentina's fiscal problems returned, in particular the spending of state governments. The government repealed the currency board, devalued the peso, and confiscated assets", he recalled about the country's economic history.

El paper de John H. Cochrane.
El paper de John H. Cochrane.

"The supposedly separate balance sheets of the government and the central bank eventually consolidated. This doesn't mean that a currency board is a bad idea. It worked for 10 years. The fact that it is not an unbreakable commitment doesn't mean that it is not a commitment at all. Full dollarization would be a firmer commitment, since it is more difficult to reverse. Inflation returned strongly, reaching 211% in 2023. The election of Javier Milei in November”, he pointed out.

The inauguration of Milei's Government

The academic paper focuses on the shift implemented after the change of government. “The year 2023 marked a milestone. He immediately embarked on a drastic program of spending cuts. Deficits of 8% of GDP in 2020 and 5% in 2023 turned into a surplus of 0.8% of GDP in 2024", he stated.

"If anyone complains that reforms are politically impossible, ask yourself how likely it is that Argentina will elect a libertarian president, who will name his dogs Milton (Friedman), Murray (Rothbard), Robert, and Lucas, and who will balance the budget in one year by cutting spending", Cochrane wrote.

El paper de John H. Cochrane.
El paper de John H. Cochrane.

He highlighted the success of Milei's economic plan: "Inflation fell drastically, with lower interest rates. Inflation remains at 2% per month, but that is the government's target".

In his analysis, the economist stressed the reduction of the fiscal deficit through spending cuts as an essential factor for the slowdown of inflation. He also highlighted the role of lower interest rates and the use of a negative real rate at the beginning of the program as part of the stabilization scheme.

The recognition of Cochrane, one of the most influential voices in contemporary American economic thought, shows that the Argentine program is present in the international academic debate and underscores the impact that the reforms promoted by Milei are generating outside the country.


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