Isasi-Burdman, the polling firm with the most inaccurate forecast of the PBA elections

The polls were wrong again in the projections prior to the legislative elections in the province of Buenos Aires, especially one survey that showed the most inaccurate estimate: that of the consulting firm Isasi-Burdman, which had predicted a 10-point lead for La Libertad Avanza (LLA).

During the final stage of the campaign, the failed firm led by the political scientist from Universidad de Belgrano (UNER-UB), Viviana Isasi, and the UBA professor, Julio Burdman, participated in several interviews in different media outlets, in which both stated, in their own words, they had "total certainty" that the alliance led by President Javier Milei, together with PRO, would win by a wide margin over the administration of the ultra-Kirchnerist governor Axel Kicillof.

"The people who are tired of losing in Greater Buenos Aires are going to show that they're going to use this opportunity to radically change what happens in the heart of the province. Kirchnerism, which made people extremely angry, is going to allow Buenos Aires residents to change and paint the province of Buenos Aires purple," Isasi stated in remarks released last week.

In the days leading up to the election, the consulting firm insisted that in Greater Buenos Aires there was a marked decline in the Peronist vote compared to the results Kicillof had obtained in 2023. They even presented implausible figures: "LLA was 10 points ahead with PRO over Peronism/Kirchnerism." The chart, released by LN+, showed 37 points for the libertarians compared to the 27 attributed to Fuerza Patria. "If we project the undecided, we get an 11-point difference," Isasi concluded, very erroneously.

The core of the consulting firm's analysis was largely based on a projection segmented by electoral sections. According to that interpretation, Fuerza Patria was unable to retain votes coming from the left or from the Somos group. Under that scenario, they predicted that LLA would win in the province of Buenos Aires. "They're sweeping the first, sweeping the fifth, and clearly winning the third electoral section. We're totally certain, this is Isasi/Burdman, quality," the political scientist asserted.

She then added: "Milei has a 51% positive image nationwide. Fifty-two percent of Argentines, August numbers after the audios, support the national government's administration. Meanwhile, in the province of Buenos Aires, there is a 60% rejection of Axel Kicillof's administration. Milei is ten points ahead of Kicillof's image in the province."

"We have numbers up to August 20. We had LLA ahead throughout the province in three sections: First, Third, and Fifth. We had them ahead in all three," Julio Burdman stated on AM 1220 during the last week. 

However, during the campaign and in the final stretch toward the September 7 elections, a marked bias in favor of the ruling party was observed, which caused surprise. In one of its latest polls, conducted between August 18 and 29, the consulting firm showed at the national level a 19-point lead for LLA over Fuerza Patria: 45% versus 26%.

In its failed projections about the province of Buenos Aires, the consulting firm maintained that the selection of candidates with low public recognition represented a strength for LLA, since, as they explained, in current politics "it's always convenient to have a new candidate because you present a renewal of politics; and you support them with a brand, in this case, with the President going to campaign in the heart of Greater Buenos Aires."