Leandro Santoro plummets in the polls and Adorni consolidates in first place

A new survey conducted this week in the context of the legislative elections on May 18 in the City of Buenos Aires no longer positions the radical Kirchnerist Leandro Santoro as the main favorite.

This is the second study to present this change, following a series of initial polls that systematically placed him at the top of preferences, leading Unión por la Patria.

The survey in question was conducted by DC Consultores, and its report places Manuel Adorni, the current presidential spokesperson, in first place. He leads the list of La Libertad Avanza, with the Kirchnerist Santoro in second place, and Silvia Lospennato, representative of the PRO, in third place.

The study was conducted between the 22nd and the 24th of this month, through an online survey that covered 1,820 people, and reports a margin of error of +/- 2.5%. All results favor the national government.

Something similar happened with other previous surveys that were even shared on social media by President Javier Milei. In one of them, respondents described the ultra-Kirchnerist governor Axel Kicillof with terms like "useless," "inept," and "clown."

Regarding this latest measurement, before presenting the specific voting intention numbers for May 18, negative data for both the PRO and Santoro are already anticipated, and highly favorable for Milei.

Survey data

A 67.1% of respondents believe that "the direction taken by the City of Buenos Aires is a disappointment," compared to 32.9% who state that "it's what I voted for," clearly alluding to the current head of government, Jorge Macri.

39.8% of those surveyed believe that "the development of the City should be guided by Manuel Adorni," while 30.7% lean toward "Silvia Lospennato" and 29.5% toward "Leandro Santoro."

71.4% point to Minister Patricia Bullrich as the most suitable figure "to solve the security problems in CABA," followed by 17.8% who choose Axel Kicillof or Cristina Kirchner, and 10.8% who mention Mauricio Macri.

Regarding Leandro Santoro's political identity, 62.5% define him as Kirchnerist, 6.2% categorize him as Peronist, and the remaining 31.3% consider him "neither."

The survey then delves into the electoral scenarios of the City of Buenos Aires from different perspectives. To begin, it presents a comparison between the three main political currents in Buenos Aires. Which one would people choose?

According to the survey by DC Consultores, 40.1% would opt for La Libertad Avanza, 38.3% would lean toward the PRO, and 21.6% would support the Kirchnerist/Peronist space.

When the survey focuses specifically on the lists that will compete on May 18 —17 in total— and their voting intention, the ranking is as follows:

1. Manuel Adorni (La Libertad Avanza): 25.6%
2. Leandro Santoro (Es Ahora Buenos Aires): 23.1%
3. Silvia Lospennato (Primero Buenos Aires): 17.2%
4. Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (Volvamos Buenos Aires): 8.7%
5. Ramiro Marra (Ucedé): 6.4%
6. Paula Oliveto (Coalición Cívica): 2.8%
7. Vanina Biasi (Frente de Izquierda): 2.6%
8. Yamil Santoro (Unión Porteña Libertaria): 2.2%
9. Lucille Levy (Evolución): 1.8%

Undecided: 9.6%

The survey also includes a question about who citizens believe will be the winner of the elections, beyond their personal preference. In that area, Manuel Adorni also leads with 34.7%, followed by Leandro Santoro with 31.5% and Silvia Lospennato with 21.2%.

Finally, with an eye on the race for the Head of Government in 2027, the pollster presents a potential runoff between Adorni and Santoro. The projected result shows a wide advantage for the libertarian leader: 71.7% versus 28.3%.