The Argentine economy closed the third quarter with figures that surprised even the most cautious analysts. Despite uncertainty and a political climate marked by ongoing attacks against the Government's economic program, activity grew again and avoided the much-feared technical recession. The Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) recorded a 5% year-on-year jump in September 2025 and a 0.5% increase compared to August, which definitively dispelled the negative forecasts that circulated throughout the year.
From January to September, activity showed a positive variation of 5.2% compared to the same period in 2024. For the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, the data represented a turning point: "Despite electoral uncertainty and political attacks, the economy recorded 1.38% seasonally adjusted growth in September compared to June. Just shy of historic highs in the level of activity!"
International markets also reacted with optimism. Alberto Bernal, chief strategist at XP Investments, celebrated the news on social media. On his X account, he wrote: "Tremendous news! Argentina September Economic Activity rises 5.0% Y/Y; est. +1.9%... According to my models, #Argentina's economy will grow 5.4% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026. As Javier Milei said a few days ago, in 2026 people will NOT talk about Chinese growth rates but Argentine ones. End #QVLLC".
Consulting firm LCG highlighted that, except for April, all previous data from the last eight months were revised upward. While the previous publication showed a 0.6% drop for the first eight months, current revisions show a 0.5% increase. With the September data, the year accumulates a 1% advance.
Among the key indicators:
