Activity averaged 0.1% monthly over the last 9 months.
In the last quarter, the pace accelerated to 0.5% monthly.
Alberto Bernal anticipates two consecutive years of growth and states that, by 2026, Argentina could display rates 'not Chinese, but Argentine.'
Activity averaged 0.1% monthly over the last 9 months.
In the last quarter, the pace accelerated to 0.5% monthly.
The Argentine economy closed the third quarter with figures that surprised even the most cautious analysts. Despite uncertainty and a political climate marked by ongoing attacks against the Government's economic program, activity grew again and avoided the much-feared technical recession. The Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) recorded a 5% year-on-year jump in September 2025 and a 0.5% increase compared to August, which definitively dispelled the negative forecasts that circulated throughout the year.
From January to September, activity showed a positive variation of 5.2% compared to the same period in 2024. For the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, the data represented a turning point: "Despite electoral uncertainty and political attacks, the economy recorded 1.38% seasonally adjusted growth in September compared to June. Just shy of historic highs in the level of activity!"
International markets also reacted with optimism. Alberto Bernal, chief strategist at XP Investments, celebrated the news on social media. On his X account, he wrote: "Tremendous news! Argentina September Economic Activity rises 5.0% Y/Y; est. +1.9%... According to my models, #Argentina's economy will grow 5.4% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026. As Javier Milei said a few days ago, in 2026 people will NOT talk about Chinese growth rates but Argentine ones. End #QVLLC".
Consulting firm LCG highlighted that, except for April, all previous data from the last eight months were revised upward. While the previous publication showed a 0.6% drop for the first eight months, current revisions show a 0.5% increase. With the September data, the year accumulates a 1% advance.
Among the key indicators:
If the economy remains at current levels, 2025 would close with 4.5% growth.
The consulting firm also noted that the execution of investment projects will depend on clarity in the exchange rate strategy, while fiscal stimulus will remain limited due to the Government's commitment to maintain a primary surplus in the 2026 Budget.
Analysts continue to adjust their projections, although within a framework of sustained growth. According to a Central Bank survey, for the remainder of 2025, moderate growth is expected, with GDP increasing by about 4% annual average.
For 2026, a mild recovery is projected, with a statistical carryover of 0.9 points, driven by sectors such as oil, mining, and agriculture.
ACM, meanwhile, indicated that political uncertainty affected forecasts during the second half of the year. REM cut the growth estimate for 2025 from 5.2% to 3.9%, and for 2026 from 3.5% to 3%. However, ACM warned: "If the current level is maintained, economic activity would register 4.5% growth during 2025, above the current average projections."