Fieder himself points out that this pattern "may have shifted Western societies to the right in recent decades, not necessarily in absolute terms, but in comparison to a counterfactual scenario in which progressive birth rates had remained steady."
Moreover, the phenomenon is not just numerical. Low birth rates imply an aging population, greater fiscal pressure, and the need for more immigration to sustain economic balance, factors that, according to the study, fuel the demand for conservative policies: tax reduction and immigration control.
La izquierda se extingue: según estudios los progresistas tienen cada vez menos hijos
Another myth that the research debunks is the left's environmentalist argument. Reducing births, they say, would help the planet. But the data show the opposite: carbon emissions are more closely linked to technological innovation and the type of energy used than to the number of inhabitants. Countries such as France and the United Kingdom have drastically reduced their emissions even with growing populations, while Japan, after abandoning nuclear energy post-Fukushima, saw its emissions increase despite a sharp demographic decline.
Far from being a "green" gesture, having fewer children could even slow climate progress, since younger societies are also more innovative, while older ones tend to protect the status quo.
The Financial Times concludes with a blow to the heart of the left: "The right's greatest move was to convince the left that talking about families and children was a topic coded as conservative." But the hard fact is that demographic reality doesn't understand ideologies: progressives, trapped in their cult of individuality and misunderstood environmentalism, are building a future in which the right will be the dominant force by simple generational weight.
The global decline in birth rates doesn't affect all political sectors equally. According to a report published by the Financial Times, the collapse in the birth rate is "overwhelmingly driven by the left." The study, based on data from the US General Social Survey, the World Values Survey and the work of anthropologist Martin Fieder (2018), reveals that the average number of children among progressives is steadily decreasing, both in the United States and in the developed world.
By the numbers: In the US, since 1980 the gap between conservatives and progressives has widened drastically. While the former still average 2.4 children per adult over 35 years (77 pounds), the latter have dropped to just 1.8 children.
In developed countries, the trend is similar: progressive birth rates fell to 1.6 children in 2020, well below the population replacement level, while conservative birth rates remain close to 2 children.
La izquierda se extingue: según estudios los progresistas tienen cada vez menos hijos
The paradox is clear. As the report explains, "by ceding the issue of family and children to the right, progressives risk paving the way for a more conservative world." That is, each generation born under these conditions leans more to the right due to a simple demographic factor.
