The United States believes that Cuba could assassinate Nicolás Maduro if he tries to escape from Venezuela.

Maduro has repeatedly promised impossible concessions to the United States: "I'll hold new elections in three years. You can come and take all the oil. I'll stop sending it to Russia," he repeats according to U.S. diplomats, who recall that he never fulfilled anything.

Washington warns that part of the problem lies in Cuban oversight: if Maduro approached the United States or considered resigning, his own Cuban handlers could execute him. Havana has been the pillar of his survival since 2013.

Before launching Southern Spear, Trump appointed Ric Grenell as a friendly envoy to sound out Maduro. The dictator even went so far as to offer the country's oil riches to the United States, according to The New York Times, convinced that "he doesn't want to mess with the United States."

However, Maduro insisted on holding on to power, something unacceptable to the current U.S. government. After new pleas from Caracas, Trump praised the possibility of talks: "I could be having some conversations with Maduro, and we'll see how that turns out."

Administration sources state that the president has already decided to move forward with that dialogue. "I see a diplomatic solution as very likely," said a close adviser. He added: "Trump wants his legacy to be having done everything possible to stop the flow of illegal drugs into this country."

The call between Trump and Maduro doesn't have a date yet, but it is "in the planning phase." Officials admit that the president is keeping all options open. They even emphasize the internal messaging guideline: "Maduro is a narco-terrorist. Always use that word if you want to represent the president's thinking"

U.S. intelligence believes that Cuba would be willing to execute Nicolás Maduro if the Venezuelan dictator attempted to escape the country. The order, transmitted from Havana, would fall to the Cuban guards who protect the leader in Caracas, according to a report by Axios in a scoop that shakes hemispheric politics. Officials in Washington consider this scenario one of the main obstacles to accelerating the fall of the Chavista regime.

The Cuban threat becomes especially relevant at a time when President Donald Trump—who returned to the White House with a firmer and more strategic foreign agenda—is considering a high-risk diplomatic move: speaking directly with Maduro himself.

Trump told his advisers that he plans to have a direct conversation with Maduro, even though Washington recently designated the Venezuelan leader as the head of a terrorist organization. "No one is planning to go in and shoot him or kidnap him, at this time. I wouldn't say never, but that's not the plan," said an official quoted by Axios. Meanwhile, he added, "we're going to blow up ships carrying drugs. We're going to stop drug trafficking."

The results are already visible: at least 83 people have died in 21 missile attacks on vessels suspected of transporting drugs, as part of the U.S. military operation in the Caribbean known as Southern Spear ("Lanza del Sur").

This shift coincides with the decision by the State Department to designate an alleged Venezuelan cartel as a Terrorist Organization, which enables greater legal freedom to take military action in the region.

Southern Spear is officially presented as a counter-narcotics force, but behind it operates a strategic objective: to force a regime change in Caracas. General Dan Caine, the main military architect of the operation, recently visited Puerto Rico, where 10,000 soldiers, sailors, and pilots are deployed.

"We have covert operations, but they're not designed to kill Maduro. They're designed to stop drug trafficking," explained a White House official. Still, he left a blunt statement: "If Maduro leaves, we won't shed a single tear."