The President of the United States,Donald Trump, said that he is analyzing the possibility of applying in Iran a scheme similar to that implemented in Venezuela after the capture of former dictator Nicolás Maduro. As he explained in an interview with The New York Times, he has “three good options” to lead a possible transition in the Persian country, although he avoided revealing names
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Trump described the Venezuelan process as a “perfect scenario”, in which the leader was removed from power while much of the state structure remained in operation, taking a pragmatic stance vis-a-vis Washington.
A more complex scenario than Venezuela
The president stressed that the Iranian situation would be considerably more complex than the Venezuelan one, due to Iran's military capabilities, its active nuclear program and deep internal divisions within society
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After the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the political scene is open and marked by tensions between clerical, military and civilian sectors that are vying for control of power.
of a definitive successor. Trump during the operation in Iran
Armed Forces or Popular Uprising
During the interview, Trump proposed different scenarios for the Iranian future. On the one hand, he suggested that elite sectors, including members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, could eventually surrender to popular pressure after the disappearance of the historic leadership
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However, he acknowledged that these forces have been protagonists of episodes of violent repression, in particular the Basij group, noted for its participation in the repression of protests.
On the other hand, the American president mentioned the possibility of a social uprising that defines the political direction of the country. “That will depend on them,” he said, referring to Iranian citizenship as a central actor in any process of change
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Military capacity and international pressure
At the military level, Trump assured that the Pentagon has sufficient resources to sustain a prolonged offensive if necessary. He highlighted the availability of missiles and ammunition stored in different bases around the world
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In addition, he argued that coordination between the United States and Israel is sufficient to maintain strategic pressure on the Iranian regime, without the need for active participation of Persian Gulf countries.
From his residence in Mar-a-Lago, the president indicated that U.S. and Israeli forces had eliminated senior Iranian military commanders and affected naval infrastructure, creating a vacuum of internal power.
Sanctions and possible agreements
Trump left open the possibility of lifting economic sanctions if a new Iranian leadership adopts a position of cooperation and pragmatism vis-a-vis the international community. However, he considered that it is still too early to define concrete support measures in the event of a transition.
The US strategy thus combines military pressure, economic sanctions and the exploration of alternative political scenarios. Meanwhile, the situation in Tehran remains uncertain, with multiple actors vying for control and with the international community attentive to developments
