A survey by a Chilean consulting firm revealed that 10% of Uruguayans demand a tougher right-wing option.
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The Chilean consultancy firm Geneva Insights, which specializes in market research and public opinion, released its first poll of voting intention for Uruguay's 2029 presidential elections. The study, carried out between February and March 2026 using an online methodology (CAWI) with a stratified sample of 1,001 effective cases, represents a detailed and representative portrait of the Uruguayan electorate projected for that year (estimated at approximately 2.8 million people).
The
aggregated results show a technical tie between the Broad Front (35%) and the National Party (35%), with a significant 16% of undecided or blank/annulled votes and 1% in the “Other” category. However, the most relevant finding of the report lies in the in-depth analysis of the undecided: approximately 10% of the Uruguayan electorate expresses their interest in voting for a more right-wing political option, an alternative that, as of the date of the poll, is not yet consolidated or strongly reflected
in the measurements.
This 10% emerges clearly from the breakdown of the undecided. Of the 16% who do not identify with any of the political forces listed, 64% express demands oriented to the right or the center-right: 34% prioritize “an option with a stronger hand against insecurity” (greater police presence, harsher penalties and strict border control) and 30% demand “more economic freedom” (reduced taxes, less state regulations, commercial opening and support for entrepreneurship). In absolute numbers, this is equivalent to nearly 280,000 Uruguayans willing to support a renewed proposal
in the right-wing space.
National results and general context
The survey presents the following picture at the national level:
The national margin of error is ±3.1% to 95% confidence for proportions of 50%. The study was stratified by department, gender, age, socioeconomic level and voting recall in 2024, following international standards from the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) and the World Association for Public Opinion
Research (WAPOR).
Results disaggregated by department
The geographical analysis reveals patterns consistent with the country's historic urban-rural division:
- Montevideo:
Broad Front 45%, National Party 25%, Colorado Party 8%, Sovereign Identity 5%, undecided 16%, Others 1%
.
- Canelones: Broad Front 38%, National Party 32%, undecided 16%.
- Maldonado: National Party 38%, Broad Front 32%, Sovereign Identity 7%.
- Northern Interior (Artigas, Rivera, Salto, Tacuarembó): National Party 45%, Broad Front 25%, undecided 18%.
- South Coast and Central Interior: Ties close to the national average.
- East (Cerro Largo, Rocha, Treinta y Tres): National Party 42%.
The National Party consolidates its dominance in the rural and northern interior, while the Broad Front maintains its stronghold in the capital and metropolitan areas. Sovereign Identity shows greater traction in coastal areas such as Maldonado
.
Results by age range
Generational
differences are notable and confirm greater volatility among younger people: Young people
aged 18 to 29 have
the highest level of indecision (27%) and slightly greater support for alternative options such as Sovereign Identity (8%). In contrast, those over 65 show greater commitment and preference for the National Party (42%).
Breakdown of the “Others” category and emerging options
Within 1% of “Others”, the numbers are still modest:
- Open Council:
0.5% - Independent Party: 0.3%
- Freedom Advances: 0.2%
The
Party for Necessary Changes recorded no specific measurement in this survey. In addition, Platform for Freedom and the Libertarian Party have not yet attained the legal status of a political party, so they do not appear as formal options in the questionnaire.
Detailed analysis of the undecided: the origin of 10%
The
survey included open and semi-closed questions among the undecided (approximately 160 weighted cases) to understand their motivations. The breakdown is as follows:
| Main reason to consider a new option | Percentage (%) among undecided: Stronger hand against insecurity: 34% More
economic freedom 30% Toughest
left in labor rights 21% More
environmentalist 10%
Opposition to abortion, gender ideology and euthanasia 5% & nbsp;
Almost two-thirds of those who are undecided (64%) are leaning towards right-wing or center-right demands, which explains the 10% of the country identified as a potential electorate orphaned by a more clearly right-wing
option.
A positive sign for the democratic debate
It is important to stress that in right-wing parties such as the PLU, PPL, LLA UY, PCN, as well as in traditional parties, there are many committed and good people, with liberal and right-wing ideas, working for the welfare of Uruguay. Each space brings everything from its convictions, experience and vision to the enrichment of the democratic system
.
However, today the majority of liberals, libertarians and rightists are politically orphans, since they do not see their priorities reflected with the force and clarity they demand. Hopefully, in the coming months, a unity or articulation will take place between the different expressions of the right-wing space that will allow us to reflect in the polls the potential that is already being seen in public opinion
.
Today, however, these emerging options still fail to meaningfully capture the support that the survey identifies as available. Libertad Avanza Uruguay registers 0.2%, and the other initiatives mentioned above do not reach a relevant electoral level in this measurement
.
It is to be hoped that, as the pre-campaign progresses and the candidacies are defined, some of these right-wing options may grow in the polls, better reflecting existing potential. In this sense, it is essential that the militants and leaders of the different spaces continue to work and militate for the union of the right, prioritizing dialogue and collective construction over any division
.
Conclusions and perspectives for 2029
The Geneva Insights survey confirms a clear trend: Uruguay is moving
to the right. The 10% of the electorate seeking a renewed option in that space represents a historic opportunity for political pluralism. This is a segment attentive to priority issues such as citizen security, economic freedom, institutional order and productive development
.
The challenge and, at the same time, the great opportunity lies in this citizen demand being translated into a unified, serious and competitive political offer for the 2029 elections. Time, dialogue and joint work between the different voices of the right-wing ecosystem will determine if that 10% finds the channel they are looking
for.
Geneva Insights highlights that the results are an early snapshot and that volatility is high, especially among young people and in the undecided segment. Future polls will allow us to measure how this trend evolves as candidatures are defined and public debate deepens
.
Uruguay has an electorate that is increasingly demanding and open to alternatives. The 10% that today feels available for a more right-wing option is, without a doubt, excellent news for the vitality of Uruguayan democracy
