Argentine sovereign bonds show moderate increases and country risk once again stands below 500 points, in a context of greater market confidence
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Argentina's financial market keeps a positive dynamic, with sovereign bonds that remain firm and a new drop in country risk, a signal that investors are closely following. Dollar-denominated securities are posting an average gain of around 0.3%, while the index prepared by JP Morgan was retreating to 484 basis points, one of the lowest levels since 2018.
This improvement is taking place in a scenario of greater macroeconomic predictability, reserve accumulation, and clear signs of fiscal discipline, factors that the market has been highlighting as key to sustaining the current path of stability.
Country risk below 500 points: a milestone not seen since 2018
Argentina's country risk once again broke through the 500-basis-point barrier, reaching levels that had not been seen since June 2018. Analysts agree that this movement reflects a sustained improvement in the perception of sovereign risk.
Los bonos argentinos siguen firmes y el riesgo país baja a 484 puntos
Reuters indicated that the local market was supported by the drop in country risk and by the fact that the Central Bank began to rebuild reserves in a consistent manner, a historic demand from financial operators.
Fiscal balance and reserve accumulation, the main drivers
Iván Cachanosky, chief economist at Fundación Libertad y Progreso, emphasized to Infobae that the drop in country risk is a positive signal in a challenging international context. According to his explanation, for Argentina to once again finance itself at reasonable rates, the index would need to continue falling toward the 400-point area.
Cachanosky identified two central factors behind the improvement:
The maintenance of fiscal balance, a government priority
The start of sustained reserve purchases by the Central Bank
These elements are joined by expectations surrounding the debate on labor reform in Congress, which, if it moves forward, could deepen the compression of country risk.
Favorable international context and better climate for emerging markets
The financial sector also highlights the impact of the global scenario. Ian Colombo, an advisor at Cocos Gold, explained that the drop in country risk responds to both local and external factors. On one hand, he highlighted the Government's effort to accumulate reserves, with purchases exceeding USD 1,000 million in January, which strengthens debt repayment capacity.
On the other hand, he stressed that the international market is rotating toward real assets and emerging market currencies, amid expectations of a depreciation of the dollar. In that context, countries such as Brazil and China are showing positive performances, and Argentina is beginning to benefit from that flow.
Los bonos argentinos siguen firmes y el riesgo país baja a 484 puntos
Validation of the new exchange rate scheme and expectations of access to credit
María Belén San Martino, an economist at Balanz, pointed out to Infobae that the return of country risk to levels below 500 points is aligned with the implementation of the new exchange rate scheme, which allows the Central Bank to accumulate reserves and gain credibility.
In the same vein, Eric Ritondale, chief economist at Puente, maintained that this improvement reflects a broader stabilization process and opens the door to gradual access to international markets, similar to recent experiences in the region.
Additional signals: provincial debt and corporate moves
In parallel, the province of Córdoba managed to place USD 800 million in bonds under New York law, with demand that doubled supply, which was read as another sign of confidence. In addition, the national Treasury will move forward with a peso-denominated debt auction to cover significant maturities, with attention focused on the rollover level.
Max Capital highlighted that reserve accumulation, reforms, and the strategic backing of the United States are changing the perception of Argentina as an investment destination, both in equities and in credit.
The market begins to project a long-term scenario
Technical analysts are also observing structural movements in the stock market, with agreements between large companies and greater integration between sectors. For Jorge Fedio, this process marks the beginning of a more competitive Argentina, in line with the vision of reforms and modernization promoted by President Javier Milei.
Nevertheless, the market warns that the main challenge will be to sustain reserve accumulation over time and to avoid a slowdown in activity that would affect tax collection. Even so, the signal is clear: the market is beginning to validate the economic course and to reduce the punishment of Argentine assets.
