New markets and competitive prices drive foreign currency inflows in summer
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More than half of Argentina's exportable wheat from the 2025/26 season has already been sold due to its high competitiveness. With a record harvest of 27.8 million tons, Argentina secured key placements in the middle of the summer and is beginning to reinforce the supply of dollars before the strong inflow from the coarse grain harvest.
According to the Secretariat of Agriculture, 10.25 million tons were registered to be shipped between December and February, the quarter when the outflow of the cereal has historically been concentrated. That volume represents almost 37% of total production and close to 50% of the exportable balance, which is around 20 million tons, considering domestic consumption of between 6 and 7 million.
El trigo argentino se abre mercados en África y Asía.
The figure is not minor. Coming from seasons in which between 10 and 12 million tons were exported and suddenly going out to place almost double in a very short commercial window required efficiency and commercial aggressiveness. The challenge was to compete against giants such as Australia, the European Union, and the Black Sea countries before the entry of wheat from the Northern Hemisphere. It was achieved.
Agribusiness consultant Javier Preciado Patiño explained that the pace of registrations exceeded the initial forecasts, which projected between 7 and 8 million tons registered at this point in the cycle. More than 10 million have already been surpassed and the market estimates that they could approach 11 or 12 million in the coming days. The chain replied with volume and price.
In addition, the map of destinations changed. Part of Argentina's wheat began to enter Southeast Asia and North Africa with force, regions that have traditionally been supplied by other major exporters. The key was competitiveness: offering the most attractive wheat in terms of price made it possible to gain ground where Argentina was not the main supplier.
This performance has a direct impact on the foreign exchange front. Most of the shipments are concentrated in the summer, a period prior to the strong inflow from the coarse grain harvest and traditionally sensitive for the foreign exchange market. In that context, the dynamism of wheat is already beginning to be reflected in the inflow of dollars.
In fact, according to CIARA-CEC, the agricultural sector brought in USD 1.85 billion in January, 82% more than in the same month of 2025. Although the soybean complex continues to lead, the contribution of wheat at the start of this year is crucial to explain the year-on-year jump.
El trigo argentino se abre mercados en África y Asía.
Meanwhile, the United States Department of Agriculture maintained its forecasts for soybeans at 48.5 million tons and for corn at 53 million in the 2025/26 season. If those figures are consolidated and the weather cooperates, the agricultural sector's foreign exchange flow could be sustained throughout the entire year.
The performance of wheat is part of a broader context: in 2025 the agro-export sector reached external sales of USD 52.337 billion, 9% more than the previous year. According to INDEC, the oilseed-cereal complex accounted for 47% of national exports.
