'Black Monday': how the Kirchnerist victory affected all economic indicators

The resounding victory of kirchnerismo in Buenos Aires, where Fuerza Patria prevailed with 47.3% of the votes compared to 33.7% for La Libertad Avanza, shook local and international markets. The defeat of the ruling party in the country's main electoral district triggered a Monday marked in red: the S&P Merval plunged 13.3% in pesos and 16.2% in dollars, falling back to August 2023 levels and wiping out thirteen months of gains.

On Wall Street, Argentine ADRs plummeted as much as 24%. Banco Francés fell 24.4%, Supervielle 24%, Banco Macro 23.5%, and Grupo Galicia 23.6%. Even YPF lost 15.3%, dropping to USD 26.10, its lowest value since April. The abrupt capital outflow reflects, according to analysts, the distrust toward a possible return of kirchnerismo to national power in 2027.

Sovereign bonds under foreign law were not spared either: they tumbled as much as 10%, pushing the country risk above 1,100 points, the highest level since October 2023. "The market suffered a rather strong blow, both in bonds, stocks, and the dollar," summarized Puente's Research team.

The official dollar closed at $1,425 at Banco Nación, after reaching a high of $1,460 during the session. The wholesale rate climbed 4% to $1,409, while the blue reached $1,385, with an intraday peak of $1,415. The MEP closed at $1,434 and the contado con liqui at $1,441, confirming pressure across all exchange rates.

From the City, analysts warned about the fragility caused by the advance of kirchnerismo. Jorge Fedio, from Clave Bursátil, stated: "Given the resounding victory of the opposition, the outlook is more for a continued downward trend than for a reversal." Meanwhile, Max Capital warned that "the strength of Peronism will likely change investors' perception toward 2027, positioning it as a competitive force."

Ignacio Morales, from Wise Capital, was categorical: "The Government expected a different result and will be forced to recalculate. Argentina is entering a recession, and the electoral result is a warning that reactivation is desired. The dollar will remain under pressure and the interest rate high."

Meanwhile, consultancies such as Portfolio Personal Inversiones and Adcap warned that, if volatility persists, the Central Bank could be forced to tighten exchange rate policy, even with a possible return of controls that Milei had managed to lift. The balance of the day left a clear message: markets react with distrust whenever kirchnerismo shows strength.