This Monday, the markets sent a clear message: the possibility of an agreement between the United States and Iran under the leadership of Donald Trump generates expectations of stability and prosperity.
The price of Brent oil fell nearly 6%, trading around $94.60 per barrel, while gas prices in Europe also dropped sharply. The reason? Trump stated that an understanding is “largely negotiated,” with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as a central piece.
This strait, through which nearly 20% of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas trade passes, has been a point of tension and risk for years. Normalizing its transit would not only lower energy prices globally but would also drastically reduce the risk of a larger conflict in the region.
The draft memorandum, according to Axios, includes a 60-day ceasefire, the opening of the strait without tolls, the possibility for Iran to sell oil freely, and the lifting of the blockade on its ports in exchange for verifiable concessions from Tehran. The principle is clear and pragmatic, very much in line with Trump: “Relief in exchange for results”.
Pragmatic leadership of Donald Trump
While his critics accuse him of being impulsive, Trump is once again demonstrating his style: maximum pressure followed by seeking agreements that benefit the United States and, by extension, the world. He is not rushing (as he himself emphasized), demanding that the agreement be “certified and signed,” and maintaining the blockade as a guarantee until the conditions are met. That combination of firmness and openness is exactly what has been lacking in the Middle East for years.
A more stable Middle East means:
Less risk of wars that generate human suffering and migration crises.
