La Derecha Diario Trump threatens to raise tariffs on Brazil if Lula responds with similar measures
Brazil would face a total tariff of 60% on its exports to the U.S
Donald Trump is considering implementing a mirror tariff policy against Brazil, similar to the one he used against China during his trade war, if the government of Lula da Silva decides to raise rates on American products. The warning comes amid a growing diplomatic conflict, where trade tensions are mixed with political accusations over the trial faced by Jair Bolsonaro, former Brazilian president and Trump’s ideological ally.
The Republican magnate has already made it clear: every Brazilian tariff increase will be met with an equivalent response from Washington. "If they're going to charge us 50, we'll charge them 50," Trump said. The dispute threatens to lead to a trade war that could severely harm the Brazilian economy.
The Chinese precedent and the warning to BRICS
Between February and April, the United States and China mutually increased their tariffs more than five times, reaching levels of 145% and 125%, respectively. Trump is considering applying the same scheme against the countries of the BRICS bloc, to which Brazil belongs along with China, Russia, India, and South Africa. The new additional 10% tariff is already under review at the White House, according to reports.
If implemented, Brazil would face a total tariff of 60% on its exports to the U.S., which would compromise the competitiveness of key products such as meat, soybeans, and steel.
Bolsonaro, the political factor straining the relationship
The judicial case investigating Jair Bolsonaro for attempting to overturn the results of the 2022 elections is, according to Trump, a "witch hunt" driven by Lula. The Republican leader sent a letter to his Brazilian counterpart in which he justified the 50% tariff imposed on July 1 as a direct response to the "insidious attacks" on freedom of expression and democracy.
"I respected him a lot. What Brazil is doing is an international disgrace," Trump wrote, in defense of Bolsonaro. Meanwhile, Lula replied firmly: "Brazil doesn't accept threats or conditions. We are a sovereign country with independent institutions," he wrote on his official X account.
The future of the bilateral relationship, in suspense
Lula announced that he will invoke the Economic Reciprocity Law to respond symmetrically to any trade sanction coming from Washington. He also instructed his foreign ministry to open a formal diplomatic negotiation process with the United States, although the time frame is tight: Trump’s new tariff scheme would take effect on August 1.
Meanwhile, the Republican administration is making negotiations conditional on Brazil reviewing the judicial case against Bolsonaro, something the Planalto Palace has already completely ruled out. Thus, the bilateral relationship is going through its most delicate moment since Trump arrived at the White House.
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