The election will determine whether Ecuador emerges from the economic recession.

The Ecuadorian economy became one of the central topics of the electoral campaign. Daniel Noboa defended a policy of fiscal stability, while Luisa González proposed a greater role for the State in the economy.

Since November 2023, Noboa's government faced a GDP contraction, energy blackouts, and insecurity. However, in recent months, indicators like unemployment and investment began to show signs of recovery.

Economist Jaime Carrera considered that Noboa's economic decisions have been adequate to guide the country. He pointed out that the agreement with the IMF, the defense of dollarization, and the containment of the deficit are positive signs to attract investment.

Meanwhile, economist Pablo Dávalos stated that the recession is the current government's fault and that with González, a "counter-cyclical" policy would begin, increasing state spending. According to his proposal, this would activate the economy through consumption and public works.

The candidate from the correísmo promised to create two million jobs and lower VAT from 15 to 12%, in addition to providing bonuses to the elderly. These initiatives were questioned by experts as unsustainable and risky for fiscal balance.

The Fiscal Observatory warned that lowering VAT could worsen the deficit to 10 billion dollars. In contrast, Noboa projected a 4% growth in 2025, supported by public-private investments and the reaffirmation of the dollar as the official currency.

Additionally, the president proposed to strengthen dollarization through executive measures and continue with a policy of sectorized bonds. He noted that priority would be given to small entrepreneurs and women entrepreneurs, without compromising fiscal stability.

"After April 13, the economy will stabilize again, we will regain the stability and investment we are seeking," Noboa stated during the presidential debate, reaffirming his commitment to an orderly growth path.

In contrast, González's promises imply high public spending without a clear source of financing. Her vision includes greater state control and a leading role for Petroecuador, in contrast to the strategic alliance policy defended by Noboa.

More than 13 million Ecuadorians will decide on April 13 which economic model will lead the country. Fiscal sustainability and private investment seem to tip the balance toward Noboa, against the welfare-oriented proposals of his opponent.

Both candidates face the challenge of generating employment, reactivating the economy, and ensuring services. But only one has a plan that prioritizes stability and investment.