The war against Iran and the closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz have triggered one of the biggest energy disruptions in recent years, leading the United States to assume a central role as a global oil supplier. In this context, the administration of President Donald Trump has promoted a strong increase in exports of crude oil and refined products, in an attempt to cushion the impact of the crisis on international markets, especially in Asia
.According to trade intelligence data, U.S. crude oil exports will reach record levels in April and May, with shipments exceeding 5.4 million barrels per day (bpd), well above the less than 4 million recorded at the beginning of the year, before the outbreak of the conflict on February 28. This increase was mainly driven by growing Asian demand, a region that relied heavily on oil from the Persian Gulf
.The almost total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world's supply of crude oil and fuel transited, has generated a significant deficit in international markets. In Asia, maritime oil imports have fallen by around 10 million barrels a day from pre-war levels, a loss that even increased U.S. exports cannot fully compensate for
.Even so, crude oil shipments from the United States to Asia have experienced remarkable growth. By May, they are projected to reach 3.29 million bpd, tripling January levels. This flow has been key to alleviating, at least partially, scarcity in countries that are highly dependent on energy imports, such as China, South Korea and Japan
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In parallel, U.S. exports of refined products have also increased, reaching 3.59 million bpd in April. However, only a fraction of that volume, about 386,000 bpd, goes to Asia, limiting its capacity to compensate for the drop of more than 1.5 million bpd in fuels that previously crossed the Strait of Hormuz into that
