The right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro is ahead of the socialist dictator Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a potential second round for the Brazilian presidential elections, according to a new survey by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg.
The son of former president Jair Bolsonaro has a 47.2% voting intention, while the current Brazilian president reaches 46.8%.
The difference between the two is just 0.4 percentage points, reflecting the extreme polarization scenario in Brazil just days before a historic election.
The Atlas Intel survey
The new result represents a change from the survey released on September 10, when Flávio Bolsonaro also led Lula, but by an even smaller margin: 46.4% to 46.2%. The new measurement thus maintains a scenario of strong parity between the two leaders heading into a potential second round.
Lula maintains the lead in the first round
The situation is different when analyzing the first round scenario. There, Lula continues to lead in voting intention, with 44.1%, while Flávio Bolsonaro gathers 41.7%.
Jair and Flavio Bolsonaro
Further behind are the right-wing Renan Santos, with 5.1%, and Augusto Cury, with 3.5%, according to the same measurement. Compared to the previous survey, Lula then had 43% and Flávio reached 37.4%, so they recorded an improvement in their percentages within the new survey, especially Bolsonaro, who grew more than 4 points.
AtlasIntel conducted the survey between September 11 and 16 and consulted 5,018 people. The survey was conducted online and has a margin of error of 1 percentage point, with a confidence level of 95%.
The Brazilian presidential elections will have their first round on October 4. If no candidate exceeds 50% of valid votes, the two most voted will compete in a second round scheduled for October 25.
With the new measurement, the scenario between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro again shows a tight race, with the right-wing senator ahead in the second round simulation, after several months where he appeared far below the current Brazilian dictator.
