Europe as a whole will have fewer births than Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, according to the demographic projections for 2025, which once again highlight a strong contrast between regions and the change in the world's population dynamics.
According to global population estimates prepared by the United Nations and released by Our World in Data, while the European continent will reach around 6.3 million births, Nigeria will record about 7.6 million, surpassing Europe as a whole on its own.
This figure clearly reflects the opposing trends that both regions are experiencing. In Nigeria, the growth in birth rates is associated with high fertility rates and a markedly young population structure.
These characteristics are repeated in much of the African continent, which appears as the region with the greatest demographic expansion worldwide. In addition to Nigeria, countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Egypt are among the main contributors to the global births projected for 2025.
At the opposite extreme, Europe continues to show historically low birth rates. Population aging and the persistence of low fertility rates explain why the continent's total number of births is lower than that of a single African country.
The projections indicate that the main European economies, such as Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy, will have fewer than 750,000 births in 2025, which limits Europe's demographic weight in the global context.
The contrast becomes even more evident when the global picture is observed. At the global level, births remain highly concentrated in a small number of countries, mainly in Asia and Africa.
Asia represents the largest share of births worldwide, driven by countries with large populations and a young demographic base. India clearly leads this ranking, with more than 23 million births expected in 2025, which is equivalent to almost one in every six births worldwide.
China, despite decades of declining fertility, remains the second country with the highest number of births in Asia, with a projection of approximately 8.7 million. Meanwhile, Pakistan would add 6,909,545 births, Indonesia 4,440,838, and Bangladesh 3,441,259, which reinforces Asia's weight in global birth rates. At the global level, it is estimated that births will reach 132 million for this year.
In this scenario, while Africa increases its share in global population growth, Europe faces challenges linked to the reduction of its working-age population and the negative impact that low birth rates can have on its economy and the sustainability of its countries.
