US intelligence suggests that Putin will seek to regain control of all of Ukraine

Recent U.S. intelligence reports continue to indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin keeps the intention of capturing all of Ukraine and reclaiming European territories that were part of the former Soviet sphere, according to six sources with direct knowledge of the assessments.

These conclusions stand in contrast to ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the war through an agreement that would leave Russia with significantly less territorial control than U.S. intelligence believes it will continue to seek.

According to U.S. and European officials, the intelligence findings broadly align with the view of several governments on the continent, particularly in Eastern European countries. Poland and the Baltic states have repeatedly expressed their conviction that Russia represents a long-term threat to the region.

At present, Russia controls approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory, including most of the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces, which make up the industrial core of Donbas, as well as parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson and the Crimean Peninsula, annexed by Moscow in 2014. The Kremlin keeps that Crimea and the four provinces are Russian territory, a claim that Ukraine and most of the international community reject.

Within the framework of negotiations driven by Washington, President Trump has pressured Kyiv to withdraw its forces from the small sector of Donetsk that it still controls as part of a proposed agreement, according to two sources familiar with the talks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has publicly ruled out any territorial concessions, a stance that enjoys broad support within Ukraine.

A White House official stated that the president's team has made significant progress toward ending the conflict and maintained that a peace agreement is "closer than ever." The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the CIA, and the Russian Embassy did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The negotiations are being led by Jared Kushner, President Trump's son-in-law, and businessman Steve Witkoff, who are working on a 20-point peace plan. Both have held talks with representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and European countries. This week, they met with Ukrainian negotiators in Miami and were scheduled to hold meetings with Russian officials over the weekend.

In parallel, U.S., Ukrainian, and European negotiators reached a preliminary consensus in Berlin on security guarantees for Ukraine backed by the United States.

Four European diplomats indicated that these guarantees seek to protect Ukraine from future Russian aggression once a peace agreement is signed. However, disagreements persist over whether such guarantees would be conditioned on the cession of territory by Kyiv.

The proposals include the deployment of a mostly European security force in neighboring countries and in areas of Ukraine far from the front line, as well as a cap on the size of the Ukrainian armed forces, set at 800,000 troops.

Russia has pushed for that cap to be lower, a demand that some U.S. officials would be willing to consider. The United States would provide intelligence, operational support, and air patrols, and the agreement would require ratification by the U.S. Senate.

Zelensky expressed caution about the proposals and noted that it is still not clear how the security guarantees would prevent future Russian aggression. In addition, it is not defined whether Moscow would accept these conditions, since Putin has repeatedly rejected the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine.

On Friday, Putin reiterated that he is willing to discuss peace but offered no concessions and stated that his conditions must be met, citing recent territorial gains by Russian forces. U.S. officials acknowledge that there is still uncertainty over whether the Russian leader is willing to accept an agreement that doesn't meet his initial objectives in the war.